The Contract Console Future

I spend a lot of time considering the business and creative strategies of the big three.  Gaming is a big hobby of mine, and the future of the industry is fairly important to me.  The industry's growth, both financial and technological, is something I've grown up with, so I'd like to think I have some good ideas where it's going.



To begin- soon, you'll be signing a contract agreement for internet service to offset the cost of future consoles, while ISPs get in bed with manufacturer's for their "fair" share.



It's already started, while Apple and AT&T leading that charge with the iphone/ipad platforms.  I'll be very surprised if Sony doesn't at least offer the Option of wireless service to offset the sticker shock the NGP will most likely cause. 



This generation of consoles has seen widespread adoption of online multiplayer gameplay, which requires a lot of data.  ISPs are calling foul.  I won't mask my contempt for ISPs- they fiend for profits, undertaking easily one of the most nefarious political campaigns of the 21st century (net neutrality), which is frightening considering so much of the shit spewing out of Washington.  ISPs, looking to undermine everyone's online access, have shown they care nothing of the consumer, only their bottom line.

So when the opportunity to worm their way into the massive gaming market, they won't pass up the chance to "get theirs".


So what does that mean for gamers?


Every generation of console has seen massive growth, more and more each time.  And with each generation there is the expectation of tech wizardry- double polygons and integrating techniques that were, in years prior, only capable by studs like Pixar, and taking weeks to render. 



The horsepower needed costs a pretty penny.  Most console manufacturers then sell these consoles at a loss, and make profit through software licensing with game makers. 

This is all fairly well known, and better explained elsewhere.  I'm just working towards my dubious prediction.

For some time now pirating software has become the norm, and making money through software sales becomes harder and harder.  Things aren't dire (except for the PSP, a tropical paradise for pirates) but pirates and hackers move faster and seemingly with greater purpose than the likes of Sony and Microsoft.  Any DRM gets hacked to bits by the day after release.


So what do these companies have that they can use to make money?  Something they have direct control and access to?  That would be their online components.

Xbox Live has proven that an expansive online community is vital to a console's popularity, as much as having the best hardware at the lowest cost to the consumer.  ISPs make vague remarks about throttling data for power users, such as online gamers, because they know there's still money left to squeeze from us. 

Like a pair of criminals, or politicians, they will find that combining their powers is easier than fighting.  So they will create a partnership for new console purchasers.  Instead of paying $400-500 for a new console and $10 a month for Xbox Live, you'll instead sign a two year (or more) agreement for specialized console-centric internet access- your Live subscription and Broadband in one bill, as well as $100-200 off the sticker price of the console, much like cell phones.

It will take a few years for it to become commonplace.  If the monetary costs remain about the same as we're used to, signing a long-term service agreement with an ISP wouldn't be too much to ask to get that shiny new console.

Like Apple and mobile dealers, there will be the option to buy the console without a contract, but you'll pay more upfront.  The option will just be there to look less villainous.

Is it a good future?  It will be argued about.  It's certainly not very optimistic.  But it would make sense to all involved.  And a contract is better than credit card debt.